Insider Poll:

Barr Could Create Presidential Toss-Up In His Home State

(5/20/08) An InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion survey of 652 likely voters shows that a Libertarian candidacy by former Republican Congressman Bob Barr could create a free-for-all in Georgia in November.

The telephone survey of registered voters who said they were likely to vote in the November election was conducted May 19. It was weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. It has a margin of error of 3.6%.

The results to the question, “If the election were held today who would you vote for President of the United States which candidate would you vote for?”

John McCain, Republican: 45%
Barack Obama, Democrat: 35%
Bob Barr, Libertarian: 8%
Undecided: 12%

(Four years ago, the Libertarian candidate took 0.6 percent of the Georgia vote.)

InsiderAdvantage’s Matt Towery: “John McCain has already acknowledged publicly that Georgia is not a guarantee for a Republican nominee. A Barr candidacy will make Georgia a centerpiece in the November race, given the fact that most other Southern states appear to be less competitive for Barack Obama. With Florida also leaning towards McCain at present, I would be shocked if the Obama camp doesn’t key in on Georgia as possible upset possibility.”

He continues “Barr is likely doing a bit better in Georgia because of his years in the political arena in the state. He has remained actively available on national talk shows and until recently wrote columns for publications (including, by disclosure, not only the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, but for a monthly magazine owned by the parent company of InsiderAdvantage Polling). My guess is that his numbers are not as high around the rest of the country due to a lack of sustained name identification.”

Towery concluded: “What makes this survey interesting is the fact that, as is usually the case this far out in a survey in a Southern state, some 12% of African-American voters says they would vote for McCain. That number almost always disappears to a negligible percent by the time the election takes place. Should Barr remain in the race, Georgia’s sizeable African-American voting population turn out at high levels in November and Obama continue to hold on to the 22% of the white vote that the poll indicates, then Georgia could be highly competitive and a new swing state, replacing others that have been critical in recent years. While Georgia is now the nation’s 9th largest state, it was ranked 10th after the last census. Regardless it obviously holds a large number of what could be critically important electoral votes in November."